I think the mothership concept holds some promise. There is obviously some efficiency gain in having a launch pad at 60k feet, but as far as I know Scaled Composites hasn't released any information on the launch costs. So whether it's really cheaper in a paradigm-busting way remains to be seen. Also, to truly go into space the current vehicle would have to be beefed up considerably, adding weight and costs. The mothership would also have to increase in size, further reducing whatever cost advantage there is. Still, it's a milestone and it's good to see people trying something new, at least.
I'm also skeptical of the space tourism market. How many people will pay 100k for 3 minutes of weightlessness? You could give them more time for less money with a vomit-comet type plane than a roket. So it probably won't take off until they can get into orbit. But if they can go into orbit, then there's probably a lot more money in launching satellites.
If anyone manages to develop a workable scramjet this whole thing could get even more interesting. Instead of just a 3 minute jaunt to the edge of space, now you can offer something like a combination weightless ride with a 2 hour New York to Tokyo trip. I think that could be more attractive than just a straight up and down thing. You could even do a hyper-fast shipping service to fully utilize your payload capacity.
The mothership and rocket engines would be perfect for a scramjet vehicle anyway. The only problem is the scramjet is probably at least 10 years away from any practical applications. So no 2 hour global fedexes for a while yet. And Eric, it's too late. You've revealed yourself as an old grump. Welcome to the club. :)
Well that's the secret of Fedex: hardly any of the stuff sent overnight is ever necessary. It's one of those status/fashion mixed with a hint of practicality kind of thing. There's always a small but predictable ultra high-end market out there looking for ways to burn money, otherwise there'd be no $1/4 million Rolls-Royces when a 20K Toyota can give you 99% of the functionality and better reliablity to boot. There'd be a very tiny market for 2-hour Fedex, but I have no trouble imagining someone like Donald Trump making regular use of it for "urgent" documents just because the cost is high enough to exclude lesser egos. Or if you just have to impress your big client in Tokyo, you can fly in live Maine Lobsters that cost $10,000 a piece. Don't laugh, not too long ago a 3lb french truffle sold for something like $30,000 at auction. Then the guy who bought it sold dishes made with tiny bits of it at $100 a plate or some ridiculous amount like that.
Also, because the planes would probably run as a private charter and not make use of public terminals, there would be no need to go through most of the airport security. Like most existing biz jets, they can even avoid the busy airports and land at smaller ones. Then I imagine the super important cargo would be flown via helicopter to its final destination. It's a total waste of money and resources, but so are basically every ultra-luxury good or service. That's really their appeal to begin with.
What about for organ transplants? Those have to be moved around quickly, before there's too much tissue degradation. I don't actually know much about the time frames for this...finou?
I'm not an expert about the whole tissue transplant thing but I think for the most part a regular airplane or helicopter travel is fast enough to transport most organs. The time that organs can be kept "on ice" varies from organ to organ but I think (and I could be totally wrong) it's usually about a day if they are properly stored. I think one of the problems is that it takes too long for patients and organs to be matched so that there is a lot of time spend on that before the organ actually gets transported...
Good point. That's a case where the transportation cost is relatively insignificant compared to the value of the cargo. A smart company might do some of those pro bono to alleviate the fear of damage during transport. Then I'd try to get some high profile rich people to set up a charitable organization to sponsor transports of organs. Good publicity and conspicuous consumption rolled into one.
For the record, I'm certainly for Eric "using" as many posts as he wants. There has to be somebody who's willing to start a conversation on any topic at the drop of a hat. While I'm normally a person to do such a thing, the internet access down here is slow (cable, but much slower than at Math Hut) and I'm a bit busy during the day helping to sort and pack things. I'll probably go back into frequent posting mode shortly after moving to NM, and it would be great if there's enough conversational traffic around here in the meantime so people get used to visiting the blog. That way there'll be an audience for when I start posting frequently again. I know you all can't wait to read about such topics as "A brief look at Canada's New Democratic Party", "The many, many types of lint", "Semantics, shmemantics", or "What's so great about series 4 of Coupling". :-)
"Hey, any idea that involves blasting the wealthiest .01 percent of the population into the cold, lifeless vacuum of space is all right by me." - Maryann Lahr, Business Owner
One of the most interesting aspects of the Space Ship One (SpaceShipOne? SS1?) design is the rocket engine used... it is a hybrid design using solid fuel and liquid oxidant. The solid fuel is butyl rubber and the oxidant is N02. This system is particularly effective at controlling the safety issues, manufacturing demands, and handling insanity associated with iquid/liquid and the inefficiency of most solid fuel rockets... And it's very, very cheap, storable, and shippable by UPS!
Now, of course, we don't konw anything about the specific impulse or any other performace parameters of this rocket... and probably won't for quite a while. Is this a downside of public v. private development?
10 Comments:
I think the mothership concept holds some promise. There is obviously some efficiency gain in having a launch pad at 60k feet, but as far as I know Scaled Composites hasn't released any information on the launch costs. So whether it's really cheaper in a paradigm-busting way remains to be seen. Also, to truly go into space the current vehicle would have to be beefed up considerably, adding weight and costs. The mothership would also have to increase in size, further reducing whatever cost advantage there is. Still, it's a milestone and it's good to see people trying something new, at least.
I'm also skeptical of the space tourism market. How many people will pay 100k for 3 minutes of weightlessness? You could give them more time for less money with a vomit-comet type plane than a roket. So it probably won't take off until they can get into orbit. But if they can go into orbit, then there's probably a lot more money in launching satellites.
If anyone manages to develop a workable scramjet this whole thing could get even more interesting. Instead of just a 3 minute jaunt to the edge of space, now you can offer something like a combination weightless ride with a 2 hour New York to Tokyo trip. I think that could be more attractive than just a straight up and down thing. You could even do a hyper-fast shipping service to fully utilize your payload capacity.
The mothership and rocket engines would be perfect for a scramjet vehicle anyway. The only problem is the scramjet is probably at least 10 years away from any practical applications. So no 2 hour global fedexes for a while yet. And Eric, it's too late. You've revealed yourself as an old grump. Welcome to the club. :)
Well that's the secret of Fedex: hardly any of the stuff sent overnight is ever necessary. It's one of those status/fashion mixed with a hint of practicality kind of thing. There's always a small but predictable ultra high-end market out there looking for ways to burn money, otherwise there'd be no $1/4 million Rolls-Royces when a 20K Toyota can give you 99% of the functionality and better reliablity to boot. There'd be a very tiny market for 2-hour Fedex, but I have no trouble imagining someone like Donald Trump making regular use of it for "urgent" documents just because the cost is high enough to exclude lesser egos. Or if you just have to impress your big client in Tokyo, you can fly in live Maine Lobsters that cost $10,000 a piece. Don't laugh, not too long ago a 3lb french truffle sold for something like $30,000 at auction. Then the guy who bought it sold dishes made with tiny bits of it at $100 a plate or some ridiculous amount like that.
Also, because the planes would probably run as a private charter and not make use of public terminals, there would be no need to go through most of the airport security. Like most existing biz jets, they can even avoid the busy airports and land at smaller ones. Then I imagine the super important cargo would be flown via helicopter to its final destination. It's a total waste of money and resources, but so are basically every ultra-luxury good or service. That's really their appeal to begin with.
What about for organ transplants? Those have to be moved around quickly, before there's too much tissue degradation. I don't actually know much about the time frames for this...finou?
I'm not an expert about the whole tissue transplant thing but I think for the most part a regular airplane or helicopter travel is fast enough to transport most organs. The time that organs can be kept "on ice" varies from organ to organ but I think (and I could be totally wrong) it's usually about a day if they are properly stored. I think one of the problems is that it takes too long for patients and organs to be matched so that there is a lot of time spend on that before the organ actually gets transported...
Good point. That's a case where the transportation cost is relatively insignificant compared to the value of the cargo. A smart company might do some of those pro bono to alleviate the fear of damage during transport. Then I'd try to get some high profile rich people to set up a charitable organization to sponsor transports of organs. Good publicity and conspicuous consumption rolled into one.
For the record, I'm certainly for Eric "using" as many posts as he wants. There has to be somebody who's willing to start a conversation on any topic at the drop of a hat. While I'm normally a person to do such a thing, the internet access down here is slow (cable, but much slower than at Math Hut) and I'm a bit busy during the day helping to sort and pack things. I'll probably go back into frequent posting mode shortly after moving to NM, and it would be great if there's enough conversational traffic around here in the meantime so people get used to visiting the blog. That way there'll be an audience for when I start posting frequently again. I know you all can't wait to read about such topics as "A brief look at Canada's New Democratic Party", "The many, many types of lint", "Semantics, shmemantics", or "What's so great about series 4 of Coupling". :-)
The pilot and one of the chief designers are on Leno right now.
Saw this on The Onion:
What do you think about private space travel?I liked this reponse:
"Hey, any idea that involves blasting the wealthiest .01 percent of the population into the cold, lifeless vacuum of space is all right by me."
- Maryann Lahr, Business Owner
One of the most interesting aspects of the Space Ship One (SpaceShipOne? SS1?) design is the rocket engine used... it is a hybrid design using solid fuel and liquid oxidant. The solid fuel is butyl rubber and the oxidant is N02. This system is particularly effective at controlling the safety issues, manufacturing demands, and handling insanity associated with iquid/liquid and the inefficiency of most solid fuel rockets... And it's very, very cheap, storable, and shippable by UPS!
Now, of course, we don't konw anything about the specific impulse or any other performace parameters of this rocket... and probably won't for quite a while. Is this a downside of public v. private development?
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