Turning the corner
Finally some good news in the Canadian federal election. After weeks of decline in the polls, the Liberals are on the uptick again, and support for the Conservatives has declined. (Globe & Mail article) As I mentioned in a previous post, there are good reasons to fear what a Conservative government would do, so any news that their fortunes are in decline is welcome. If only we had analogous good news here in the States: the latest Zogby poll shows Bush taking over the lead in electoral votes.
4 Comments:
I do trust some of the larger, more reputable polling firms, who would have a lot to lose by manipulating results. It would be very surprising if they didn't have the knowledge and capability to conduct an accurate survey. However, reporting about polls by third parties (newspapers, television, this blog, etc.) is prone to inherent bias, misunderstanding the results, etc. Also, people don't always vote as they say they'll vote.
In case anyone is interested how the seat distribution would work out, Ipsos-Reid predicts 110-114 for the Conservatives, 107-111 for the Liberals, 19-23 for the NDP, and 64-68 for the Bloc. A majority requires 155 seats, so a minority government is likely. I'd feel better if the Liberal and NDP numbers added to at least 155, but I wouldn't be too concerned if the Bloc ended up as the kingmakers.
I leave it to Jacob to decide whether to write the poll results up on the main New Canada white board.
And 93% of statistics are made up? :)-
Being in a battle-ground state I'm being continuously blasted with campaign adds already. I'm seeing about 1.5 to 2 Bush adds per Kerry ad with the Bush ads being about 80% attack ads. I've also heard some Bush radio ads but none from Kerry yet. I'm somewhat encouraged that Bush is not leading Kerry by much considering the spending discrepency and the historical effectiveness of political attack ads. Also, Bush seemed to have gotten a recent bounce from Reagan, and we will probably see a Kerry bounce when the convention rolls around along with a VP nominee. I just hope the Florid'uh people can cast their votes right this time.
It would also be a big plus if Florida wasn't overenthusiastic in purging voting rolls this time around. If they hadn't disenfranchised legitimate voters last time around, the country would never have heard of "hanging chads".
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